Stop assuming that I regret voting Tory – even after this week's news, I don't

Tony Blair flagged up to Labour why they’re failing to win over voters recently, but he could advise Corbynistas living on a fault line to be mindful of earthquakes and they’d write it off as centrist meddling

I don’t relish the prospect of voting for Theresa May, but Corbyn is forcing my hand (PA)

It’s never entirely straightforward explaining Conservative voting habits. I have to assess the mood, and likelihood of recriminations. I imagine it’s how a vegan feels in a French restaurant.

As the Tory tailspin has gathered momentum, it’s become an even more complicated question. I was in the green room of a gig recently and a fellow comic asked with rhetorical confidence: “Yeah, but you wouldn’t vote for the Tories now, right?”

My answer prompted disbelief rather than the usual irritation or anger. Yes, I really would.

And I’m not alone. The most recent polling puts Conservative support stubbornly around the 40 per cent mark. It should be a concern to all Labour voters, but many seem locked in a post-election optimism that future success is inevitable.

Tony Blair rightly flagged it last weekend, but he could advise Corbynistas living on a fault line to be mindful of earthquakes and they’d write it off as centrist meddling.

However, the facts are plain: the Conservative vote is holding up post-DUP, post-Grenfell, post-coughing fit, post-sexual assault scandals and post-more or less everything Boris says or does. This doesn’t denote a kinky penchant for shaky administrations; it’s a sober kind of pragmatism.

While voting habits on the left are often a matter of passion, identity and awesome badges, centre-right types view British democracy as a grim choice between the lesser of two evils. Elections give us the same feeling as deciding which in-laws to spend Christmas with.

That sombre deliberation between two imperfect options could easily be swung to a more tempered Labour message, but there’s little sign of that.

Remember Corbyn’s post-election noises that he would reach out to the centre of the party? Nothing changed. A front bench of Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry strikes even the wetter Tories as cranky and hard left. It would help to see Hillary Benn, Chuka Umunna or Yvette Cooper, but Corbyn and McDonnell see control of the party as the main priority. It has to be their ball, even if they never get around to kicking it.

While many weren’t convinced by the right-wing press attempting to portray Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser, there will remain a hard core for whom his past will always be a red-line issue. Yes he doesn’t “look” like a bad guy; equally, Osama bin Laden had a really lovely smile.

Given his own history with Iran, it was particularly odd for Corbyn to personally wade in on Boris’s gaffe – like Mourinho accusing Wenger of mind-games.

John McDonnell comes across as a reformed football hooligan who’d have done less harm if he’d stuck with it. Diane Abbott continues to think she can paper over her competence deficit by speaking more slowly and more like the Queen. And, if you’re worried about the current Foreign Secretary shooting his mouth off, Emily Thornberry strikes me as the kind of person who could start a missile crisis after a heavy lunch.

All of which amounts to a cranky power-four, the kind of democratic proposition that spooks the life out of “Middle England”.

Then there’s Brexit. Corbyn supporters proudly shared recent footage of him getting a standing ovation in Europe. That doesn’t make me think he’s the guy to get the best available deal coming out of Europe. It makes me think of Australian cricket fans applauding England’s most susceptible batsmen to the crease.

Labour’s nebulous and expedient position on Europe is unsettling to both Leave voters and to Remainers who accept that Britain will ultimately exit the EU. The Tories may have their own problems with “Brexit mutineers”, but 15 rebels of 318 still seems more manageable than a parliamentary Labour Party diametrically at odds with an emboldened leadership their membership won’t allow them to change.

Maybe the passage of time will wear down the electorate and Labour will take the kind of 10-point lead they’d need to feel confident of a majority in a snap election. However, there’s also a chance that the Brexit commentary, which has been almost exclusively negative, may shift with any progress on a trade deal.

Labour can’t depend on the recent carousel of incompetence continuing forever. In this volatile political environment, they have to be in a position to win an election at any time, because there’s a reasonable chance there might be one.

A recent YouGov poll also found that 19 per cent of Tory voters do not agree with the Government’s aims or the way it is delivering them. That’s a stark illustration of the reservations many have about a Corbyn administration. Those voters are there for the taking. If Labour wishes to govern with a majority rather than an electorally damaging coalition with the SNP, nabbing them is a question they’ll have to get to grips with.

Geoff Norcott’s UK tour of his new show, Traditionalism, runs from 8 February to 25 March 2018. Details can be found here